At about this time in 2019, several of us (in our background chatter) assumed that PM Andrew Holness would have called general elections by December of that year. Back then, he could have walked on water, with a ton of led as the sole of his Clark’s Desert Boots. But December came and went; and talk of elections in 2019, left with it.
2020 took its place in the annals of history, bringing with it the now ubiquitous COVID-19. A stubborn “devil of a virus” which is turning human societies and civilizations (around the world) upside down; and threatening to turn PM Holness and his administration out to pasture. Politically, (for the Jamaica Labour Party) Covid-19 is worse than the mythical 7-headed hydra; for each time Holness cures a few, the virus delivers hundreds more new cases.
Such a strangle-hold has COVID-19 laid on the Jamaican Political culture; that it single-handedly shut-down the hitherto invincible, 5-yearly Jamaican street carnival which qualifies as the country’s general elections campaign. If the (almost invincible) Don Anderson polling organization is to be believed, the under-dog PNP is “barking louder and louder” and “biting at the heels” of the Andrew Holness Jamaica Labour Party. I am not surprised, for that same Don Anderson seems to suggest that 34% of Jamaicans gave Peter Phillips an average pass as Opposition leader, with 16% rating his performance as good. Those of us who have been marking exams, know very well that any student who scores 50% in course work, has a better than average chance of getting B or better with finals added. A late-run by the PNP may not be enough, but it certainly forced a JLP canter into a flat-out sprint, without any certainty of victory.
Some believe that the Peter Phillips led PNP won the 3 campaign debates. If true, such a performance could help drive and power a successful late run by Phillips and the PNP, by improving the Party’s stock-value among uncommitted and independent electors. The latest iteration of the Anderson poll identified about 40% of 1.9 million registered electors as not planning to vote or undecided. Of course, a late run by the PNP is not a guarantee of victory. Road works are proceeding at a frenzy across Jamaica. Obviously, Holness and his administration are pulling at all the levers available to an incumbent administration.
By Friday morning, we should know if the Andrew Holness “power of incumbency” is enough to escape the grasp of an increasingly confident Peter Phillips and the PNP. Unlike delays in conceding in Guyana and (to a lesser extent) Trinidad and Tobago, the revere and high esteem with which Jamaican hold their electoral authority, should guarantee that however close the vote, the winner will be undisputed.
Walk good, while the JLP and the PNP run for their political lives.
Arvel Grant, Political and Current Affairs Analyst